The Los Angeles Lakers are set to host the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, November 14, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans — a game that’s shaping up to be one of the most explosive of the season. With the Lakers sitting at 8-4 and the Pelicans struggling at 2-9, the spread isn’t surprising: Lakers are 9.5-point favorites, and the over/under is 227.5 points. But here’s the twist — despite the Lakers’ dominance on paper, most experts are betting against them to cover. And the reason? The game’s pace, the defenses, and a pattern that’s hard to ignore.
Why the Over Is the Bet of the Night
The numbers don’t lie. In 10 of the Lakers’ 12 games this season, the total points have gone over 227.5. That’s an 83% hit rate. The Pelicans? They’ve been part of seven games this year where the combined score soared past that mark — 63.6% of their contests. FOX Sports and Winners and Whiners both point to the same thing: neither team plays defense worth mentioning. The Pelicans rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers aren’t much better — bottom half in points allowed and three-pointers conceded. Meanwhile, the Lakers’ offense? They don’t shoot a ton of threes, but they make them count. Third in true shooting percentage. That’s elite efficiency. The Pelicans? They’re 29th. So when they face each other, it’s less a chess match and more a high-stakes shootout.Computer models predict a final score of 120-112. That’s 232 total points — comfortably over the line. And the trend backs it up: nine of the last 11 Lakers games have gone over. Even when the total was set at 228.5, Winners and Whiners still recommended the over with five units. Why? Because both teams are tired. Both teams are sloppy. And when the Pelicans get hot — which they do, often — the Lakers can’t slow them down.
The Spread Is the Real Story
Here’s where it gets interesting. The Lakers are -467 on the moneyline. That means you’d need to bet $467 just to win $100. It’s a massive favorite. But the spread? +9.5 for the Pelicans? That’s where the smart money is. The Lakers are 8-4 against the spread this season — a strong record. But the Pelicans? They’re 5-5-1. And here’s the kicker: in the last three head-to-head matchups, the Pelicans covered the spread twice. On April 4, 2025, they lost 124-108 — but were 15.5-point underdogs. They covered. On March 4, 2025, they lost 136-115 — but were 8.5-point underdogs. Again, they covered. Even on November 16, 2024, when they lost 104-99 as 7.5-point dogs, they nearly stole it. That’s not luck. That’s a pattern.It’s almost as if the Pelicans play better when they’re counted out. And this season, they’ve been underdogs in 10 of 11 games — and won only once. But that one win? It came when they covered by 12. So while the Lakers are clearly better, the Pelicans have a history of making games ugly, grinding, and close. That’s why FOX Sports and iHeartMedia FOX Sports Radio 1340 both recommend the +9.5. The Lakers might win by 10 — but they might win by 12. Or 15. Or they might not win by more than 8. And that’s enough to make the underdog a smarter play.
Historical Edge and Betting Trends
The Lakers have won the last three meetings outright. But the spread record? 2-1 in their favor. That’s not dominance — that’s close calls. And the betting market knows it. The Lakers haven’t been favored by more than -467 this season. That’s a red flag. When a team is this heavily favored, especially against a team that’s been competitive against the spread, the line often gets inflated. And when that happens, the value shifts to the underdog.What’s also notable? The Pelicans’ home record. They’re 1-4 at the Smoothie King Center, but their losses have all been by single digits. Against the Spurs? By 4. Against the Jazz? By 6. Against the Thunder? By 8. They’re not getting blown out. They’re just losing by a few. And the Lakers? They’ve won their last four road games — but three of them were by less than 10 points. This isn’t a team that dominates. It’s a team that grinds.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Box Score
This game matters for more than just the win-loss column. The Lakers are trying to solidify their playoff positioning in the West. A loss here, especially by a small margin, could spark questions about their consistency. Meanwhile, the Pelicans? They’re fighting for relevance. A cover — even in defeat — could be the spark their young core needs. Zion Williamson’s return is still weeks away, but Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are playing with purpose. They’re not giving up. And in a league where momentum is everything, that matters.The broadcast is on SportsNet LA, Gulf Coast Sports, and Pelicans+, with streaming via Fubo. If you’re watching for entertainment, it’s a must-see. If you’re betting? The over and the +9.5 are the plays. The Lakers will likely win. But they won’t win by enough.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are experts picking the Pelicans to cover despite being 9.5-point underdogs?
The Pelicans have covered the spread in 5 of their last 11 games and have lost by single digits in nearly every defeat this season. The Lakers, while better, have only won by more than 10 points twice in their last 12 games. Historical matchups show the Pelicans have covered in 2 of the last 3 meetings against the Lakers, even in losses. That trend, combined with both teams’ poor defenses, makes the +9.5 a high-value play.
Is the over really the safest bet here?
Yes. The Lakers’ games have gone over 227.5 points in 9 of 11 this season — an 81.8% rate. The Pelicans have been part of the over in 7 of 11 games. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league defensively, and the Lakers’ efficient offense (top 3 in true shooting) thrives against porous defenses. Computer models project 231.6 total points — comfortably above the line.
How does this game compare to previous Lakers-Pelicans matchups?
The Lakers have won the last three meetings outright, but the spread record is 2-1 in their favor. In each of those games, the Pelicans were underdogs by 7.5 to 15.5 points — and covered twice. The scoring has been consistently high: 124-108, 136-115, and 104-99. This game is likely to follow that pattern — a close, high-scoring affair where the Lakers win, but not by enough to cover comfortably.
What’s the significance of the Lakers’ -467 moneyline odds?
That’s the shortest moneyline the Lakers have had all season — meaning the market sees them as heavy favorites. But such extreme odds often signal overvaluation. Bettors are paying a steep price for a likely win, while the spread offers better value. If you believe the Lakers will win by 8-12 points — which models suggest — the +9.5 on the Pelicans gives you a better return with similar odds of success.
How have the Lakers performed on the road this season?
The Lakers are 4-2 on the road, but their wins have been tight: by 6, 7, 3, and 5 points. Their only double-digit road win came against the Spurs, a team with a worse record than the Pelicans. This game in New Orleans is their toughest road test yet — and the Pelicans have shown they can hang with elite teams, even if they don’t win.
Can the Pelicans actually win this game?
It’s unlikely, but not impossible. The Pelicans are 1-9 as underdogs this season, but their lone win came as a 12-point dog against the Thunder — a game they covered by 12. They’ve shown they can score efficiently when healthy, and the Lakers’ defense has been inconsistent. If Ingram and McCollum combine for 60+ points and the Lakers have a shooting slump, an upset is within reach — though the odds are still heavily against it.